The Reversed Khmelnytsky Uprising

From a geostrategic point of view, the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war so far is for Poland the most favorable turn of events in Eastern Europe since the fragmentation of Rus' into principalities — that is, for about… 900 years. Why?

Every state can be strong or weak, considering two fundamental factors. The first is internal strength (population, economy, armed forces, technological advancement, efficiency of the state apparatus and diplomacy), and the second is the strength or weakness and relations with surrounding states, with key rivals or partners.

A key factor of Polish power from the late Middle Ages to the 18th century was the construction of a strong state center by the last Piasts at a time when both the Rus' lands and the German lands were in a state of feudal fragmentation.

As soon as Moscow consolidated a significant part of the Rus' lands in the 15th century, it moved west. Fortunately, it encountered a Poland that was already consolidated, victorious after Grunwald and strengthened by the union with the Grand Duchy. Until the first partition in 1772, the Polish-Lithuanian state fought as many as 12 wars with Moscow.

The strategic balance between Poland and Russia was broken in the 17th century, when Moscow captured Kyiv and Smolensk and burned Vilnius. With the Dnieper basin partially controlled, and partially open, the Kremlin rulers could begin pressure directly on the Vistula basin.

        Russia became the main force that led to the fall of Poland — interfering in internal affairs,
        to maintain an inefficient political system, carrying out military pacifications, and finally seizing
        most of the territory of our state at the end of the 18th century. The factor that put the "dot over the i"
        was the rise of the power of Prussia and Austria.
    

The pressure of the tsarist state, and then Soviet Russia as the dominant factor in Eastern Europe, fundamentally influenced Polish fate in the following two centuries.

1917

Crisis and collapse of the Russian empire — one of the two breakthrough moments from the Polish perspective.

1920

Defense of fresh independence against the Bolshevik invasion — ending in success.

1991

End of Soviet pressure — this time bloodlessly, without Polish blood tribute.

Looking from this broad perspective, the current Russian-Ukrainian war is the first in over 500 years in which the Dnieper basin effectively defends itself against Moscow's invasion, and the Polish soldier does not have to pay for it with his life.

From the Polish point of view, the ongoing conflict is a "reversed Khmelnytsky Uprising". Since the unfortunate Pereiaslav agreement in 1659, when Ukraine began to lean unambiguously toward Moscow, the situation in Eastern Europe has never been so favorable for Poland. Every subsequent day of the ongoing war causes the attrition of Ukrainian, but also Russian human, economic, and military forces, and digs an ever deeper chasm between Moscow and Ukraine.

        Key to the balance of power in our region remains control over Kyiv
        and the Dnieper core of the Ukrainian state. If Moscow rules over the Dnieper,
        the geostrategic balance on the continent is disturbed, and Russia begins pressure on Central Europe,
        in which it has for centuries perceived Poland as its most important rival. Putin knew this perfectly well,
        demanding from the West at the end of 2021 a change of the rules of the game in the region, so that Poland would find itself
        in the position that Ukraine occupies today.
    

Fortunately, after 4.5 years of war, Russian tanks are no longer standing near Kyiv,
but Ukrainian drones are flying over Moscow.

An armed balance of power is ongoing.

According to www.facebook.com

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