Study Confirms Migrants Behind 45% of Europe's Jihadi Plots

The link between mass migration and jihadi terrorism has long been a taboo subject in European capitals, dismissed as a 'far-right trope' by elites and media alike. But a new academic study, published by the Danube Institute and summarized in Hungarian Conservative, provides hard data that shatters this comfortable illusion. The findings are stark: between May 2015 and May 2025, migrants were involved in 45 per cent of all jihadi plots in Europe, and these plots were more likely to succeed and to kill than those carried out by native-born individuals.

The Data: Migrants More Lethal and More Successful

The study, compiled by terrorism expert Simon Cottee, identified 221 jihadi plots in Europe over the decade, of which 100 involved at least one migrant. Migrant-related plots were launched 51 per cent of the time, compared to 36 per cent for non-migrant plots, and they caused 279 deaths versus 107 for non-migrant plots. The deadliest attacks, such as the 2015 Paris massacre and the 2016 Nice truck ramming, were the work of migrants.

A Pattern of Negligence and Ideological Blindness

The study recounts chilling examples of how European authorities failed to act. Issa al-Hasan, the Syrian who killed three at a 'Festival of Diversity' in Solingen in 2024, had his asylum application rejected in 2023 but was never deported. Similarly, the Afghan who stabbed a police officer in Mannheim in 2024 had been rejected in 2014 but obtained a residence permit through marriage. These are not isolated failures but symptoms of a system that prioritizes ideological commitments to diversity over the safety of citizens.

The 'Fourth Wave' of Jihadism

Cottee identifies a 'fourth wave' of jihadism: rootless migrants who arrive in Europe and radicalize, often within a few years. They are not blank slates, but carry formative experiences from their countries of origin. The study notes that 47 per cent of migrant plotters had been granted asylum or residency, proving that refugee status is no firewall against extremism. The ideological motivation is clear: as ISIS itself declared, they hate the West for what it is, not what it does.

• 80% of migrant-related plots were ISIS-affiliated; 76% were lone-actor operations.
• Germany was the top country for migrant-related plots (nearly half), followed by France and the UK.
• Hungary, which closed its borders, experienced almost zero jihadi activity, despite EU fines.

The study's author acknowledges his own past sympathy for migrants, which blinded him to the dangers. But the data now speaks for itself. As Viktor Orbán warned in 2015, mass migration jeopardizes European security. The first step in addressing this threat is to acknowledge it, and this study provides the empirical foundation for doing so.

Šaltinis: Hungarian Conservative — https://www.hungarianconservative.com